Betting strategies exist for a long time. Typically, these strategies are planned moves, which aim to increase the probability of winning. They build scaffolding, which can be used to answer the question: "how to bet," when to bet and when to stop bet ". Here we mean the set of rules and tools that the player can apply to increase the probability and chance for success and profit
Betting strategies we can qualify in two groups:-stakes strategies with a greater likelihood of success, but with less profit;-stakes strategies for greater profits, but with less chance of success.
It must be clear that no system or strategy that can guarantee success absolute if the outcome of an event can not be known or predicted time for a given strategy.
There are several well known systems of money management that are used by players: Martingale, order numbers, the Kelly criterion and others.
MARTINGALE
Martingale is one of the most familiar strategies for management of the Bank (the money down to bet) impeccable in theory, this strategy requires a very large bank that has a very low return, it may predict poor and still make money.
How does the strategy MARTINGALE:
You start with a bet of one unit by a factor of meeting more than or equal to 2 (two). If you win the next bet is equal to the first, if you lose - a doubling your first bet. Every time you lose, double your last bet. Eventually you should not ever know the outcome of a meeting and then restore the money from all your lost bets plus a profit equal to the first bet. Then the soil again.
The principle of MARTINGALE:
1 - 2 - 4-8 - 16 - 32-64 ....
No doubt a fantastic strategy if you have unlimited funds, nerves of steel and a cool mind. Remember that in the seventh lost a bet, following must be 128 shares, but chances are the same as the first bet.
Martingale admittedly not a good system for managing money for the average player because of the high level of progression in the betting, which is enshrined in it.
The order of the numbers
The order of the numbers is not like the Martingale. While Martingale can quickly return your bets win, the order of numbers does not make it so quickly, but at the same time off and exploding the growth of the bet.
This system gives you many more options than the Martingale, because you can actually calculate your bets in a more satisfying way. The bad thing with it is that you can write numbers on a piece of paper and additions when you lose, and striking when you win. It should also have a strong control on betting, so to speak. But let's see what it is:
First decide how much you want to win. For example, 1000 Euros. Then you decide how much time will it take you to reach your goal. This is the hardest part, because when you win, you must remove the first and last number in sequence, but when you lose you must add.
As a result, you should try to calculate the average probability to earn a hard place. If you want to play with matches, the coefficient is about 2.00, then let's say that the probability of winning is around 40%. Much better to underestimate than to overestimate their capabilities. If you overestimate, you will need to catch, raising the stakes, and exactly what action is very uncomfortable, if you enter a bad run.
Imagine 1000 euros divided into 20 gains of 50 euros to calculate how long you will earn 1000 euros, you have 40 percent success rate at an average rate of matches from 2.00 (50% chance means that you are together with the bookmaker) .
With 40 percentchance guess correct object by a factor of 2.00 you would have lost 60% of its forecast. So typically lose 50% more often than they win (60/40). In case of success you will have to remove two numbers of leaves (first and last). When you lose, save for one number at the end. A sample list might look like:
50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
How to determine the first bet?
As explained above, the first and last day will be removed if you win. 50 + 50 = 100. To earn 100 euros, you will need to use a pledge to bring you a net profit of EUR 100. If the given coefficient is 2.00, you have to bet 100 Euros. If the ratio is 1.50, you can bet 200 euros. If it is 1.75, the bet must be 133.33 euros. The formula for calculating the bet is:
Net
----------------------
coefficients. - 1
Bets for your next match should be calculated in the same way. If the first time you bet 125 euros a factor 1.80 and you lost, you must write the rest125 at the end of the sheet. Your next bet should be the sum of the first and last digit of the leaves, ie 50 + 125 divided by the coefficient minus one: ((50 +125) / (koef. - 1)). Of course, replace the current ratio of one for the object you selected. If you win, you need to remove фирст and the last digit in a row and then start over with 50 + 50/koef.-1 again.
Even if it is fraught with potential progression uncontrollable bet, this system is as dangerous as the Martingale. If you enter a bad run, things can easily spiral out of control. Just because your calculations before you bet on are important. Before you start this system, do so try it out at some time about a month. So you will learn the system and will understand the importance of humility when deciding their ability to predict correctly.
Kelly Criterion
Systems like Martingale and order numbers using high levels of progression, removing limits on players. With these systems, stakes successively increase in losses and thus the players there is a huge risk of bankruptcy.
In the Kelly Criterion progression grow until you win and decreases when you lose. The amount of the bet is determined by the percentage of the amount of your funds. In the Kelly Criterion risk of bankruptcy is virtually eliminated. However, this system requires the player to prevail in the projections to the bookmaker. When you bet using Kelly is expected to be equally or better than bookmakers. If the home is estimated at 2.00 with a match, you bet if you think there is at least 50% chance of winning.
Criterion Kelly received its name from John L. Kelly, an American who discovered the theory and formula. Briefly, the theory of Kelly says that if you can determine with great accuracy the approximate outcome of matches, then by a formula you can determine the exact amount of your fund means that you should set the appropriate match. The formula looks like this:
A = P - (1 - P) / (koef. - 1)
And - this is the percentage of funds separate from you, you can bet on games (column).
P - is likely to receive such an outcome.
If you found an object by a factor of 2.00 and think it likely to win the match is 55%, the formula of Kelly's easy to calculate how much to bet. Q in this formula in this example is equal to 0.55 and the result of calculation shows A = 0.1.
This percentage means that the object is worth 10% of your total funds. Nothing more, nothing less. If you are too optimistic in their expectations (for example, believe that the subject is worth 60% instead of 55%, which are "calculated" in advance and more accurately), then you will lose your money.
This is due to the fact that the formula of Kelly discovers and optimizes bet if you know its accuracy to predict. If you are too optimistic in its forecasts, you will lose money. If you are too pessimistic, will earn money, but less than if you handle with free bets (but small profit is still profitable).
Size of fund game
For starters you need a pool of money for a game that exceeds 10-15 times the normal amount of money you bet a single example. Of course, this should be money you can afford to lose. Remember that in the Kelly Criterion, you can not lose all your money at once, because the stakes are always determined by the current state of your balance.
To choose the games properly and often enough is the hardest part of this system. Only through the accumulation of experience you can become a better player. The bookmakers do not offer enough "good bets" and it is therefore necessary to find them yourself. Do not expect to find more than 2 to 5 games during the week. When you find such a game, analyze it carefully from all sides.
Duration of the project?
How long should play in this system? If you set a goal, you have to put off the moment you reach it and start over. This is the only way to find out how much you earn and this will raise your morale and discipline. If you have not set up a target, put an end to project the moment you reach 100% pure profit. Remember that while your money is the bookmaker's account, he, not you have them. And what's the point of earning money that you can not use?
Let us now examine the system closely:
The biggest advantage of Kelly is that you lose less money when you have little money of account. This is due to the fact that every bet is a percentage of current balance when it is low, the stakes too low. If the average stake is 10% of your balance and lose 6 times in a row, you will still have 48% of the original amount. I will not bore you with statistics, but if you predict well (bet 10% advantage over the bookmaker), the chance to lose 10 times in a row is 1 / 3000!
Kelly is a system that can quickly change your balance. With Kelly you make a small range, about 5% of every match. If you present yourself well, Kelly helps you increase your bet and winnings. If you lose - they decreased. Because this did you happen to suffer serious changes in the balance. Kelly is a system for players who do not gamble for money and pleasure of good prognosis.
CONCLUSION:
If you are a player who is willing to risk (if you like gambling) and predict well (more than half the estimates are correct), then Martingale and order of numbers are your systems. Be aware of the risks posed by these systems. Progression there is absolutely desperate and can end your project well before it started really.
If you are not willing to risk, but you know that you can predict with less than 50% success, then Kelly is your system. Kelly is a system of professionals, a system for those who strive for perfection. System that optimizes the movement of funds and brings you win each time you have an advantage in outcome over the "enemy", ie bookmakers.
