Saturday, November 20, 2010

Betting research and analysis: how to do it


To be a long term winner, you take to know the basics of handicapping. Here are a few mere strategies to approach soccer betting research.

Home and Away Records
The first thing you ought look at is how well a team plays at home or away. Some teams are horribly bad on the road, but good at home. Some top teams never lose at home, but often draw away. Look for patterns; they often repeat themselves.

Recent Form
Check the results of both teams from their last 6 matches. A lot teams are streaky: they win a bunch of games, then have a string of losses. This is one area where you will be able to be a step ahead of the bookie, because he inclines to center the league table positioning more than recent form.

Team News
This is all important. Is a key player missing? Is the coach resting his regular starters? Has a influenza virus infected the whole squad? Occasionally a team will field a entirely second-string group of players, but the bookies will be slow to adjust their odds. This is a great way to make use of bookies who do not do their preparation.

Head-to-Heads
Compare past match-ups between 2 teams. Does one team incline to win more often? Does the game often finish in a draw? Search situations where one team has a 80% or higher winning record against the other club. That's a profitable bet in the long term.

Motivation
Some teams come into a game highly motivated, desperate for a win. Others are distracted for various reasons, such as an important upcoming game. Try and judge each team's motivation. Just beware of reading too much into this. A team in a "must-win" situation will fail to win more often than you think.

Upcoming Fixtures
Scheduling is important. Some teams are involved in European and national cup competitions on top of their home leagues, so they are forced to juggle several matches in their schedule. This often forces a team to make sacrifices, because it's impossible to play with 100% effort if you have a game every 2 or 3 days. Find out what games matter most in the schedule and adapt your wagering accordingly.

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